The ability to find value is a fundamental criterion for a successful forecaster. This term means to find a profitable odds, which, in the player’s opinion, the bookmaker Parimatch overestimates and the probability that the bet with it is higher than the one laid by the BK. In this article we will try to find out how to find the jackpot (valley) in tennis bets matches.
To begin with it is worth mentioning that it is easier to find valuables in tennis bets matches than in soccer or hockey matches. The outcome of a tennis match can end in two variants, which greatly simplifies the procedure of finding it. In addition, a more efficient pre-match analysis is applicable to tennis, because two separate athletes fall under its study.
How is the value counted?
Values should be calculated by the given formula – K * P > 1:
- K – the coefficient on the outcome, which put the bookmaker,
- P – the probability of passing this quotation, which the player has determined for himself by studying statistics and careful analysis.
For an illustrative example, consider a match in which two tennis players of approximately the same level meet. The results of the first player in previous matches look better, and the bookmaker Parimatch offers odds of 1.60 for his victory. The second tennis player comes to the match as a slight outsider due to several lost meetings, and his success is estimated by the office at a quotation of 2.45.
In this case, the bookmaker gives the first player 62.5% to win and the second player 37.5% respectively.
Conducting a pre-match analysis, which gives us to understand that the second player is a follower of the coverage on which the match will take place. In addition, his style of play is uncomfortable for the opponent, and in the history of personal confrontations there were cases of successful outcomes in his favor.
The data allows you to level out the recent results of the match, based on which the quotes. And they also suggest that the bookmakers underestimate the chances of the other to win. Instead of the 37.5% offered by the office, the prognosticator assumes that the chances of winning in this case are close to the same and in this bet there is Value (valley), counting it with our percentage (50% or 0.5):
- 2.45 * 0.5 = 1.225 > 1
As you can see, the final result of the calculation satisfies the formula: the result is greater than 1, which means that there is indeed Value in this bet.
There is an excellent book that helps to correctly understand valuation, but it is mean – “How to find value bets. It will help you a lot in your tennis betting success.
How does Value Betting work for profit?
Essentially, value helps players identify “holes” in the lines of bookmakers who do not always distribute their odds. It is important to understand that the criterion of valuys falls not only on high odds, which are put on the victory of the outsiders. This strategy can also be applied to predictions on favorites, the quotation on which, in your opinion, is overstated, and in such a bet there is our criterion.
From the player requires the ability to correctly assess the chances of the outcome of the match, based on his experience, analysis and study of statistics. Do not be squeamish bluff bets that at first glance may seem to you “exorbitant” or if the experts’ opinions do not coincide with your prediction.
This strategy works for a long distance and requires the forecaster to distribute the bankroll rationally.
Like any other sport, tennis keeps score for each player, but unlike soccer or basketball, it has a specific principle. In this article we are going to analyze how the actual ranking of tennis players is compiled, and how the factors surrounding it can affect tennis match predictions.
How ranking points are kept in tennis
Since 2009, the International Tennis Federation has significantly changed the ranking points system, which is the fundamental principle for the entire world tennis system. The outdated system operated on the principle of the banal calculation of points that a player scored at the end of the year.
Under the current system, a player’s current position in the overall standings is based on the principle of protecting the points he earned during the same week last year.
Thus, changes in the overall ranking of tennis players are updated at intervals of once a week.
Ranking Points as an Important Prediction Factor
The lion’s share of modern bettors in betting Parimatch does not pay attention to the specifics of the modern ranking calculation in tennis, which is a huge mistake. The fact is that the need to defend the points scored last year obliges tennis players to take more responsibility for the tournaments at which they are going to play.
It is important to understand that the calendar of tournaments is gradually shifting, and not always the competitions that were held in the twentieth week of last year, will fall on the same seven days of the ongoing tennis season. However, it is not uncommon for tournaments to coincide, which makes life much easier for tennis players.
How it works for betting
Players who regularly bet on tennis will have no difficulty even without studying last year’s results to determine a player’s need to defend points. To be more confident, before making a prediction, it is necessary to analyze the tennis player’s performance in betting Parimatch this period last year and thus understand whether he is motivated, to defend his position at this tournament.
On a similar principle, it is possible to understand that for one of the tennis players, the matches of the following weeks will be important, because in this period last year he achieved the best results. It should not be forgotten that ranking points are awarded not only for victories at tournaments, but also for each stage passed. The further a player passes on the tournament grid, the more points are added to his piggy bank.
Using this analysis, it is possible to determine matches in which one of the tennis players will be super-motivated, and the other, on the contrary, will be deprived of additional stimulus. Based on this data, you can “catch” victories of outsiders, or confident victories of favorites.
How does a high ranking help tennis players?
As in any other sport, the financial condition of tennis players, directly depends on his success in the tour. In recent years, the ATP and WTA regularly increase the prize money of major tournaments by attracting sponsors and advertising contracts. Not every prognosticator knows, but even getting into the main draw of any tournament brings a tennis betting player prize money. The more prestigious the tournament, the higher the prize money.
The biggest payouts for making it to the main draw are for Grand Slam tournaments. To illustrate this, we can give an example, with the updated prize money at Roland Garros. Tennis players who made it to the main grid of the French Grand Slam in 2018, regardless of the tour (men’s or women’s), received forty thousand dollars each. This amount was doubled each time they advanced up the standings.